Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Probability
13¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+8.2pp
24h Vol
$695.91
Liquidity
$197.54
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14784.5h
- 04:30SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14784h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:30PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 13¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 13¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 18¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.6pp
to 18¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.7pp
to 20¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.1pp
to 21¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.3pp
to 19¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.2pp
to 19¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 19¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 19¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 19¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.7pp
to 19¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 19¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.6pp
to 18¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.1pp
to 19¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.1pp
to 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 13¢+10.7pp
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $237.86
- 88¢+1.5pp
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $206.81
- 67¢+1.5pp
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $5.47
- 36¢0.0pp
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 11¢+0.5pp
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $126.43
- 2¢+0.2pp
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 1¢+0.1pp
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 27¢-15.7pp
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 23¢-32.0pp
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Other · Vol $6.7M
- 2¢-1.6pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.1M
- 13¢-42.0pp
Oilers vs. Ducks
Other · Vol $767.6K
- 0¢-50.4pp
Golden Knights vs. Utah
Other · Vol $753.5K
- 11¢-38.5pp
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
Other · Vol $698.9K
- 0¢-54.4pp
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Other · Vol $528.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (4.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).