Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Probability
27¢
1h
-3.8pp
24h
-15.2pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$118.93
Probability (last 7 days)
+26.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14784.5h
- 04:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14785h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:29PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.9pp
to 27¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.1pp
to 32¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.9pp
to 26¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.6pp
to 22¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.7pp
to 18¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.1pp
to 24¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.2pp
to 25¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.6pp
to 26¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.8pp
to 23¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 27¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 31¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.3pp
to 33¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.1pp
to 34¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.7pp
to 27¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.7pp
to 28¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.0pp
to 36¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.9pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.8pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.6pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.3pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.6pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.8pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.7pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.4pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (40.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).