Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$9.23
Liquidity
$23.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 11¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1567h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $23.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.8h
- 17:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1567h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 11¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 12¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Official government informationOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.