UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 8, 2026
Creator

Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Probability

0¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-2.4pp

24h Vol

$600.32

Liquidity

$516.32

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-39.6pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 17:00May 6, 2026, 16:08
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T16-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 48h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $516 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 48 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 47.9h

    HIGH
  • 16:08Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 48h.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -40.7pp at 4d ago (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
  • 2d ago · -40.5pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -37.2pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -36.2pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -39.7pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -40.2pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -40.7pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -40.2pp → 0¢
  • 4d ago · -40.2pp → 0¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventKhamenei # posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 1, 12:00 PM ET and May 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:08:30 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -39.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/khamenei_ir.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/khamenei_ir. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$600.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $701.18. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $516.32. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket