Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?
Probability
44¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$165.32
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 44¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 33.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5981.0h
- 18:59SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-7.5pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 1d ago (to 50¢).
Show all 29 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:59 · +14.0pp → 42¢
- 17:00 · +15.0pp → 43¢
- 15:00 · +14.0pp → 45¢
- 14:00 · +14.0pp → 45¢
- 12:00 · +14.5pp → 44¢
- 11:00 · +17.5pp → 44¢
- 09:00 · +8.0pp → 41¢
- 08:00 · +11.5pp → 44¢
- 06:00 · +11.5pp → 45¢
- 05:00 · +12.0pp → 44¢
- 03:00 · +12.0pp → 45¢
- 02:00 · +12.5pp → 45¢
- 00:00 · +11.5pp → 45¢
- 23:00 · +12.0pp → 45¢
- 21:00 · +13.0pp → 45¢
- 20:00 · +11.5pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · +15.0pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +22.0pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +14.0pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +11.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +9.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +12.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · -19.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.