Obama federally charged before 2027?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$14.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 14¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.4h
- 14:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Barack Obama by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).