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BusinessExpires Apr 29, 2026

Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Probability

30¢

1h

-14.5pp

24h

-14.5pp

24h Vol

$227.73

Liquidity

$930.74

Probability (last 7 days)

-20.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 13:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:11
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 104.8h

    LOW
  • 12:11Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -16.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

As of market creation, O'Reilly Automotive is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for O'Reilly Automotive's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.70 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if O'Reilly Automotive reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.70 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If O'Reilly Automotive releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://seekingalpha.com/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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