Relay FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$10.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14771.2h
- 17:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14771h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 23¢+2.0pp
Relay FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 16¢0.0pp
Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 16¢0.0pp
Relay FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 36¢+1.5pp
Relay FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $36.13
- 14¢+1.0pp
Relay FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-2.1pp
Relay FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢0.0pp
Relay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 96¢+18.0pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.1M
- 91¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $492.0K
- 0¢-1.5pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $475.9K
- 100¢+49.5pp
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $473.7K
- 100¢+59.5pp
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $419.5K
- 1¢-0.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $370.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- using the total token supply multiplied by the token priceAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowx.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.