Will Pau win?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-22.4pp
24h Vol
$556.84
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-50.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 22pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 164.0h
Price movement
-22.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -28.5pp at 2d ago (to 22¢).
Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:59 · -19.4pp → 0¢
- 17:00 · -25.3pp → 2¢
- 15:00 · +23.0pp → 50¢
- 14:00 · +21.5pp → 49¢
- 09:00 · +5.0pp → 40¢
- 08:00 · +3.0pp → 39¢
- 06:00 · -3.5pp → 33¢
- 05:00 · -3.5pp → 33¢
- 03:00 · -5.0pp → 30¢
- 02:00 · -13.0pp → 23¢
- 00:00 · -13.5pp → 23¢
- 23:00 · -13.5pp → 23¢
- 21:00 · -13.5pp → 23¢
- 20:00 · -13.5pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · -14.0pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · -14.0pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · -28.0pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · -27.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -20.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -20.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -20.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · -27.5pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -28.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 22¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Pau wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.