Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-17.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$948.29
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 16.1h
- 11:54SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 16h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 34¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 34¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 34¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 34¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 34¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 36¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 36¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 35¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 20¢-0.5pp
UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)
Sports · Vol $5.8K
- 46¢-0.5pp
Fight to Go the Distance?
Other · Vol $32.09
- 30¢-21.0pp
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 10¢-37.5pp
Will Lucas Brennan win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 19¢+2.0pp
Will Francis Marshall win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 78¢+27.5pp
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 64¢+13.5pp
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 55¢+2.0pp
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $605.63
- 100¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 89¢+46.0pp
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings
Sports · Vol $955.1K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $887.7K
- 4¢+0.1pp
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $766.5K
- 100¢+35.4pp
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Sports · Vol $582.2K
- 12¢+0.1pp
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Sports · Vol $528.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.