Will Francis Marshall win by KO or TKO?
Probability
31¢
1h
+11.0pp
24h
+14.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$855.06
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 14pp over 24h
Now 31¢; +11.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 43.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 10h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 10.2h
- 17:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+13.5pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: -34.5pp at 1d ago (to 16¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:49 · -20.5pp → 31¢
- 16:00 · -31.5pp → 20¢
- 15:00 · -31.5pp → 20¢
- 13:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 12:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 10:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 09:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 08:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 06:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 05:00 · -33.0pp → 18¢
- 03:00 · -33.0pp → 18¢
- 02:00 · -33.5pp → 18¢
- 00:00 · -32.5pp → 19¢
- 22:00 · -33.0pp → 18¢
- 20:00 · -32.0pp → 19¢
- 18:00 · -34.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -33.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -33.5pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -34.5pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -34.5pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -34.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -34.0pp → 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Francis Marshall defeats Lucas Brennan at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (43.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.