U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$15.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.5h
- 19:30SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at 4d ago (to 28¢).
Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
- 16:00 · +3.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -6.0pp → 26¢
- 3d ago · -6.0pp → 24¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -4.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -4.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -6.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · -4.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -6.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 26¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 26¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · +3.5pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · +5.0pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · +7.5pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 4d ago · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 4d ago · +5.5pp → 27¢
- 4d ago · +5.0pp → 24¢
- 4d ago · +4.5pp → 27¢
- 4d ago · +6.0pp → 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.