Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Probability
50¢
1h
-4.5pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$760.92
Probability (last 7 days)
+12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 50¢; -4.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 34.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.2h
- 17:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-12.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +10.0pp at 2d ago (to 48¢).
Show all 17 hour-by-hour ticks
- 14:00 · +4.5pp → 55¢
- 12:00 · +3.5pp → 56¢
- 10:00 · +5.5pp → 57¢
- 04:00 · -3.0pp → 53¢
- 00:00 · -3.0pp → 52¢
- 23:00 · -6.0pp → 53¢
- 21:00 · +5.5pp → 60¢
- 20:00 · -6.0pp → 53¢
- 18:00 · +4.5pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · +5.5pp → 56¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.