Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$65.12
Liquidity
$14.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 729.0h
- 14:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 14¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 14¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 14¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).