Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-alexander-alexandrov-win-the-2026-mordovia-gubernatorial-elections-20260723202005982 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-alexander-alexandrov-win-the-2026-mordovia-gubernatorial-elections-20260723202005982/markdown.

GeopoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 20, 2026

Creator

Will Alexander Alexandrov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections?

Probability

2¢

+0.0pp

24h

-3.8pp

24h Vol

$3.4K

Liquidity

$21.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Sep 20, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
nato
Link
izbirkom.ru)
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

2¢

Jul 24, 2026, 16:00 UTCJul 25, 2026, 21:38 UTC

updated 21:38:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-25T21-38Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $21.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Sep 20, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
nato
Link
izbirkom.ru)
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: nato

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Alexander Alexandrov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Alexander Alexandrov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Sep 20, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 1370.3h
LOW

Price movement

-3.8pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 21:38:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 21:38:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Mordovia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Mordovia and Russia, including the Election Commission of Mordovia and the Central Election Commission of Russia (https://www.izbirkom.ru).

Why this category?

confidence: medium

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Alexander Alexandrov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections?"?

As of Sat, 25 Jul 2026 21:38:16 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 20, 2026 (2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $21.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket