Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 893h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 892.7h
- 19:19SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 893h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -42.0pp at 13:00 (to 8¢).
Show all 6 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -41.5pp → 8¢
- 17:00 · -42.0pp → 8¢
- 16:00 · -40.5pp → 8¢
- 15:00 · -40.5pp → 8¢
- 13:00 · -42.0pp → 8¢
- 11:00 · -41.5pp → 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 45th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- sos.ca.govOfficial government sourceextracted · highsos.ca.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.