Insidious-Chemistry
0x314c9c0c6f60c3563cc29ef3f969d36e6d0b69dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$5.9K
Total PnL
$-41.56
Realised
$-241.34
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
2513 shares @ 59.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$95.52
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
3486 shares @ 39.4¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.3K
$-67.88
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1124 shares @ 66.9¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.0K
$276.18
- YES
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
2481 shares @ 40.3¢·now 36.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$905.43
$-94.57
- NO
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
952 shares @ 21.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$195.24
$-4.76
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
189 shares @ 32.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.41
$54.87
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
152 shares @ 66.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$112.05
$12.05
- NO
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?
202 shares @ 49.5¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$110.15
$10.15
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
158 shares @ 63.4¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.44
$6.44
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
164 shares @ 61.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$102.46
$2.46
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.72Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$41.28Jul 26, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$580.51Jul 26, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$103.61Jul 25, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$101.46Jul 25, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 25, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$101.76Jul 25, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$103.95Jul 25, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?$103.95Jul 25, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$101.42Jul 25, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$2.9KJul 25, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$329.00Jul 24, 11:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$6.42Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.89Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$515.04Jul 23, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$515.61Jul 23, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$435.84Jul 23, 07:53 UTC
- REWARD$2.55Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 22, 18:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $200.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 20:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.