Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$733.59
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6011h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6011.2h
- 17:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6011h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: +23.0pp at 2d ago (to 37¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -3.0pp → 12¢
- 12:00 · -7.0pp → 13¢
- 06:00 · -8.5pp → 13¢
- 05:00 · -7.5pp → 13¢
- 02:00 · -8.5pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +23.0pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 15¢
- 3d ago · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 18¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.