Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Probability
39¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$53.00
Liquidity
$22.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6059h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $22.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6058.6h
- 13:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6059h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).