Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Probability
30¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
-18.6pp
24h Vol
$11.00
Liquidity
$15.57
Probability (last 7 days)
-22.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.3h
- 11:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 29¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 28¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 28¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 28¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.2pp
to 53¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 50¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 50¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 50¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 50¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 50¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.9pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.4pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.1pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.1pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.9pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.4pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.3pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.7pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.3pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.4pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.2pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.8pp
to 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (49.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).