Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$3.7K
Liquidity
$39.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 32¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1588.7h
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 32¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 32¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 34¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 36¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 36¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 36¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 36¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 35¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 34¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 36¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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