Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $9.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.