Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Probability
53¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+17.0pp
24h Vol
$576.17
Liquidity
$21.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 17pp over 24h
Now 53¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2746h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2746.4h
- 13:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2746h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 51¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 51¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 50¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 50¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 49¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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