Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Probability
52¢
1h
-9.0pp
24h
+33.0pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$156.91
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 33pp over 24h
Now 52¢; -9.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5925h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 86.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5925.1h
- 02:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5925h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+33.0pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: +30.5pp at 02:00 (to 52¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 02:00 · +30.5pp → 52¢
- 4d ago · -21.5pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -22.5pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -24.0pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -23.5pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -22.0pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -22.0pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -22.0pp → 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (86.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.