Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-8.3pp
24h Vol
$1.9K
Liquidity
$4.7K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 7¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 700.3h
Price movement
-8.3pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -41.0pp at 2d ago (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -17.5pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -19.0pp → 9¢
- 1d ago · -17.5pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -18.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -31.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -31.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -31.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -41.0pp → 10¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Alerts
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