Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between -0.3% and -0.1%?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$95.43
Probability (last 7 days)
+25.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 42¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 77.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 559.9h
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 42¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 42¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 44¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 43¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 41¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 42¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the JapAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (77.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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