Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Probability
12¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$25.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 12¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
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Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 20183.0h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: -18.0pp at 05:00 (to 12¢).
Show top 8 of 25 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -18.0pp → 12¢
- 02:00 · -15.5pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · -17.0pp → 12¢
- 1d ago · -17.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -15.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -16.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -16.5pp → 14¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 14, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in theLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.