Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026?
Probability
89¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+38.5pp
24h Vol
$55.00
Liquidity
$562.52
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 39pp over 24h
Now 89¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $563 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 84¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5148.8h
Price movement
+38.5pp over the last 24h, now 89¢.
Biggest hourly move: +61.0pp at 00:00 (to 89¢).
Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
- 08:00 · +38.0pp → 89¢
- 07:00 · +38.5pp → 89¢
- 06:00 · +38.5pp → 89¢
- 05:00 · +60.0pp → 89¢
- 03:00 · +60.5pp → 89¢
- 02:00 · +60.5pp → 89¢
- 00:00 · +61.0pp → 89¢
- 23:00 · +60.5pp → 89¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justinas "jL" Lekavičius is listed or announced as an official analyst (Analyst / Desk Analyst / Pundit or equivalent) for any Counter-Strike tournament classified as S-Tier, at any time on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The analyst role must be verified through at least one of the following sources: Liquipedia tournament page, HLTV.org tournament page, or an official announcement from the tournament organizer. S-Tier tournament definition: A tournament is considered S-Tier if it appears on Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Valve_Tier_1_Events) and is marked as S-Tier at the time of verification. Cancelled events do not count. Note: Being listed/announced in other roles (host/interviewer/caster) or as a guest does not qualify. An announcement/listing as an analyst is sufficient for "Yes"; on-broadcast appearance is not required. If none of the above sources list or announce jL as an analyst for an S-Tier CS tournament by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia's Valve Tier 1 Events page (https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Valve_Tier_1_Events).
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026?"?
As of Sat, 30 May 2026 11:13:20 GMT, YES is priced at 89% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +38.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$55.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $134.26. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $562.52. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.