UnclassifiedExpires May 1, 2026

Will Leavitt say "JD" or "Vance" during the next White House press briefing?

Probability

48¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$40.16

Liquidity

$69.73

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 48¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 123h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 52.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 123.0h

    LOW
  • 20:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 123h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the acting White House Press Secretary says the listed term during the next White House press briefing they participate in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated content will not be considered when resolving this market. If no such press briefing happens by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers to White House press briefings by the acting White House Press Secretary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by the acting White House Press Secretary will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as the acting White House Press Secretary is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
White House
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (52.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.