Will Martin Shkreli appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$303.30
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6006.1h
- 22:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-3.5pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at 1d ago (to 16¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -4.0pp → 11¢
- 21:00 · -3.5pp → 12¢
- 20:00 · -3.5pp → 12¢
- 15:00 · -3.5pp → 12¢
- 12:00 · -4.0pp → 12¢
- 05:00 · -3.5pp → 13¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 45¢-11.0pp
Will Gainzy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 26¢+1.1pp
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 40¢+2.5pp
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 37¢-1.5pp
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 12¢-1.0pp
Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 31¢-3.0pp
Will Su Zhu appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-0.5pp
Will Javier Milei appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 2¢+0.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $379.3K
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $288.9K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $279.9K
- 85¢-4.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $229.7K
- 1¢-8.3pp
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $227.1K
- 8¢+1.6pp
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Other · Vol $202.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.