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SportsExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?

Probability

20¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$19.08

Liquidity

$877.93

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:38
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 8.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6010.4h

    LOW
  • 13:38Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Verstappen officially announces his retirement from Formula 1 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Max Verstappen is retiring from Formula 1 racing. The announcement must come from Max Verstappen himself or his official representatives. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately or prior to the start of the next season following the announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Max Verstappen; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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