Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?
Probability
39¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$223.98
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 66.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.2h
- 12:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 39¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 39¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 39¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 39¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 39¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 39¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 39¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 39¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (66.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).