Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.1h
- 12:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 13¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).