Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Probability
42¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$46.35
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 26, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NCAA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (81.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 81.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 26, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NCAA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (81.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 26, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 6073.8h
- 22:14SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.4pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: +41.9pp at May 15, 20:00 UTC (to 45¢).
Show top 8 of 63 hourly moves
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · +41.9pp → 45¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · +36.1pp → 47¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · +22.1pp → 39¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · +21.4pp → 46¢
- May 13, 19:00 UTC · +21.4pp → 47¢
- May 13, 17:00 UTC · +28.5pp → 48¢
- May 13, 15:00 UTC · +28.8pp → 38¢
- May 13, 14:00 UTC · +29.3pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the national champion of the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the national champion of 2026-27 NCAA Football Division 1 season per the rules of NCAA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after February 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NCAA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ncaa Reason
NCAA — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?"?
As of Sun, 17 May 2026 22:14:01 GMT, YES is priced at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +16.6pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 26, 2027 (2027-01-26T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $46.62. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $46.35. Spread between best bid and best ask: 81.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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