Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.9pp
24h Vol
$69.82
Liquidity
$14.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1403h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $14.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1403.5h
- 12:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1403h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.6pp
to 3¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.6pp
to 3¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.6pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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