Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
5¢
1h
-2.3pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3242h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 7.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3242.5h
- 21:30SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3242h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.3pp at 05:00 (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -4.1pp → 6¢
- 05:00 · -10.3pp → 6¢
- 02:00 · -4.3pp → 5¢
- 1d ago · -7.2pp → 5¢
- 2d ago · +3.6pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · +3.6pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -3.7pp → 5¢
- 3d ago · +8.0pp → 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.