Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
50¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+1.4pp
24h Vol
$6.28
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 50¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3246h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3246.2h
- 17:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3246h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: -14.8pp at 3d ago (to 46¢).
Show all 42 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -5.4pp → 51¢
- 16:00 · -9.4pp → 46¢
- 15:00 · -8.1pp → 47¢
- 14:00 · -4.0pp → 48¢
- 12:00 · -5.3pp → 46¢
- 10:00 · -7.6pp → 46¢
- 00:00 · -3.1pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +3.8pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +6.3pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +7.6pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +3.2pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · +5.4pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · -3.8pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +4.1pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 57¢
- 3d ago · -14.8pp → 46¢
- 3d ago · -9.0pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -12.3pp → 48¢
- 3d ago · -7.3pp → 54¢
- 3d ago · -11.7pp → 49¢
- 3d ago · -14.1pp → 47¢
- 3d ago · -14.0pp → 47¢
- 3d ago · -14.7pp → 46¢
- 3d ago · -9.6pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -12.7pp → 47¢
- 3d ago · -10.4pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -8.9pp → 52¢
- 3d ago · -10.7pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -10.4pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -13.2pp → 48¢
- 3d ago · -13.3pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · -13.3pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · -13.7pp → 47¢
- 4d ago · -13.2pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · -12.7pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · -12.3pp → 49¢
- 4d ago · -11.8pp → 49¢
- 4d ago · -9.2pp → 52¢
- 4d ago · -14.5pp → 46¢
- 4d ago · -10.7pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (22.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.