Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$66.90
Liquidity
$14.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 561h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $14.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 560.9h
- 15:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 561h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 25¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 25¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 25¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 26¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 23¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 24¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 24¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 24¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 25¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 26¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 25¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 26¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 27¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 27¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 27¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).