Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 15 Gwei before 2027?
Probability
37¢
1h
-4.5pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$192.71
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 37¢; -4.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 42.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6005.5h
- 23:27SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -12.0pp at 2d ago (to 34¢).
Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
- 22:00 · +6.5pp → 40¢
- 14:00 · -7.5pp → 35¢
- 02:00 · -9.5pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · -10.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · +10.5pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -12.0pp → 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.