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CryptoExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027?

Probability

14¢

1h

+1.8pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6015h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 11.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6015.3h

    LOW
  • 13:44Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6015h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -5.6pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -6.8pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.7pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -5.6pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -4.8pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -6.9pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -5.6pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -6.6pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -6.7pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -4.8pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.4pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.3pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (11.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).