Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027?
Probability
45¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$1.11
Liquidity
$62.07
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 45¢; +5.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 69.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6014.2h
- 14:50SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 35¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 33¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 47¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 32¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 47¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 26¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 26¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (69.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).