Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit 70 by April 30?
Probability
54¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$49.68
Probability (last 7 days)
+37.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 74.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 131.4h
- 16:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 58¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 62¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 57¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 60¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 61¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 62¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 62¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.0pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.0pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 40.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Polylayer data point for the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Polylayer, specifically the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index values available at https://polylayer.xyz/crvix/btc, with the chart settings on "7D". A data point is considered finalized once the next data point is published. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market. For reference, the methodology can be found at: https://polylayer.xyz/crvix
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (74.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.