Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?
Probability
41¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 41¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 26.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4616.3h
- 15:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 40¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 40¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 32¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 32¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal Election CommissionOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (26.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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