Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$144.57
Liquidity
$22.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 848h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $22.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 848.3h
- 15:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 848h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territory. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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