SportsExpires Sep 28, 2026
Creator

Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Probability

34¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$964.07

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official MLB data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
1007550250
34¢
May 9, 2026, 16:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 15:50 UTC
updated 15:50:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T15-50Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3224.2h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.

Biggest hourly move: -20.5pp at May 12, 11:00 UTC (to 33¢).

Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
  • May 13, 10:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 36¢
  • May 13, 00:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 36¢
  • May 12, 22:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 36¢
  • May 12, 15:00 UTC · -19.0pp → 35¢
  • May 12, 14:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 34¢
  • May 12, 12:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 35¢
  • May 12, 11:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 33¢
  • May 12, 09:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 34¢
updated 15:50:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 15:50:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMLB: Team to make postseason
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a spot in the 2026 MLB Playoffs per the rules of the MLB. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 MLB Playoffs (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". Any tiebreaker or “Game 163” will not be considered part of the MLB Playoffs. If the 2026 MLB Playoffs are cancelled, postponed to begin after October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the full 12-team playoff field has not been officially confirmed by MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB and/or the clinching team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 15:50:13 GMT, YES is priced at 34% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and -0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 28, 2026 (2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $509.66. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $964.07. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

9 wallets
Open on Polymarket