Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 17 be less than 80?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 3pp over 24h

  Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $614 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.