Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?
Probability
95¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$8.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5978.9h
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 95¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryTreasury DepartmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.