Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Probability
64¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$149.16
Liquidity
$23.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 900.1h
- 11:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 900h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:54PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 64¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 64¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 62¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 64¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 63¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 63¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 63¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 63¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 63¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 63¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 64¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 64¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 63¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 63¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 64¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 64¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).