Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 10 and 15 minutes long?
Probability
6¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-16.2pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$11.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 30h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jul 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 6¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 30h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 30 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jul 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: @realDonaldTrump
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Near expiry
Orrery verification task Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 10 and 15 minutes long? State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 10 and 15 minutes long? State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 17, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 30.0h
- 18:01SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 30h.
Price movement
-16.2pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -38.6pp at 18:00 (to 5¢).
Show 4 hourly moves
- 18:00 · -38.6pp → 5¢
- 17:00 · -37.1pp → 6¢
- 15:00 · -38.6pp → 5¢
- 13:00 · -38.1pp → 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804). This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation. The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 10 and 15 minutes long?"?
As of Thu, 16 Jul 2026 18:01:25 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -16.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 17, 2026 (2026-07-17T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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