Respectful-Scarecrow
0x04945f4d3e27ad7c8844c5e1a0c8be4c461e2b2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
68
Open notional
$12.79
Total PnL
$-67.73
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
9 shares @ 13.5¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.63
$1.36
- YES
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 6.0¢·now 11.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.40
$1.11
- NO
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.25
$0.05
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?
5 shares @ 7.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.47
$1.12
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.23
$-0.07
- YES
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
9 shares @ 14.3¢·now 12.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.13
$-0.16
- YES
X banned in any European country by December 31?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.78
$-1.27
- YES
Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
6 shares @ 8.3¢·now 4.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$0.28
$-0.25
- YES
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
28 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.25
$-1.04
- YES
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
2 shares @ 20.5¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.09
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$5.09Aug 5, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$5.00Jun 29, 01:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$5.00Jun 25, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$5.68May 31, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?$5.98May 4, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026$0.10May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$0.43May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$0.49May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?$0.31May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$1.01May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBillions FDV above $100M one day after launch?$0.48May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?$0.64May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLRomanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?$0.81May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?$0.79May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$0.63May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?$1.02May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLAbstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?$1.04May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$0.83May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?$0.72May 1, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill BP be acquired before 2027?$1.07May 1, 17:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 18:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 05:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.